{
\def\sym#1{\ifmmode^{#1}\else\(^{#1}\)\fi}
\begin{tabular}{l*{2}{c}}
\toprule
                &\multicolumn{1}{c}{\shortstack{National\\unemployment\\(percent)}}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{\shortstack{Firm\\profits\\(categorical)}}\\\cmidrule(lr){2-2}\cmidrule(lr){3-3}
                &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(1)}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{(2)}\\
\midrule
                &         &         \\
{\bf Panel A: OLS}&         &         \\
                &         &         \\
Posterior: Recession&0.459\sym{***}&-0.005\sym{*}\\
                &  (0.071)&  (0.003)\\
                &         &         \\
\hline          &         &         \\
{\bf Panel B: IV}&         &         \\
                &         &         \\
Posterior: Recession&0.669\sym{**}&-0.027\sym{**}\\
                &  (0.296)&  (0.012)\\
                &         &         \\
Observations    &      303&      301\\
                &         &         \\
Mean dep. var.  &    36.79&     0.06\\
SD dep. var.    &    25.58&     0.95\\
First stage F-stat&    13.98&    13.98\\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
}
